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2023 Early Career Researcher Grant

Understanding Structural Social Determinants of Suicidal Trajectories

1 research finding from this AFSP-funded study.

Research finding · March 2026

Extreme Risk Protection Order laws impacted firearm suicide rates in four U.S. states

More than half of all suicide deaths in the United States involve a firearm. Because firearms are highly lethal and often used in moments of crisis, policies that temporarily reduce firearm access during periods of heightened risk have become a central strategy in suicide prevention. Extreme Risk Protection Orders, sometimes called red flag laws, allow courts to temporarily remove firearms from individuals judged to be at serious risk of harming themselves or others. Supporters view these laws as a way to create time and distance during moments of acute distress. At the same time, an important question remains in the field: do these laws reduce overall suicide deaths, or do individuals simply turn to other methods? Understanding this distinction is essential to evaluating how lethal means safety works in real-world settings.

In this large, county-level study spanning from 2012 to 2022, Dr. Yunyu Xiao looked at suicide trends in four states (Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Rhode Island) that enacted ERPO laws without passing other firearm legislation at the same time, and then compared them to trends in eight states that did not enact ERPO laws during the study period. After accounting for local economic conditions, mental health resources, and other factors that can influence suicide rates, Dr. Xiao found that firearm suicides declined in the year following ERPO implementation. This reduction translated to an estimated 675 fewer firearm suicide deaths across the treatment states. Importantly, there was no measurable increase in suicides by other methods during the same period. Taken together, the findings suggest that ERPO laws may reduce firearm suicides, offering support for policies that temporarily limit access to highly lethal means during times of crisis.

Citation: Brown, T. T., Kaplan, M. S., Yan, Z., & Xiao, Y. (2026). Extreme Risk Protection Orders and Firearm and Nonfirearm Suicides in the US. JAMA health forum, 7(1), e256442. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamahealthforum.2025.6442

This finding comes from an AFSP-funded study — see the grant below ↓

The grant behind this work · 2023 Early Career Researcher Grant

Understanding Structural Social Determinants of Suicidal Trajectories

Yunyu Xiao, Ph.D.

Yunyu Xiao, Ph.D.

Cornell University, Weill Cornell Medicine

Mentor: John Mann, M.D.

Amount awarded
$109,448
Focus area
Psychosocial

Inside the Research

This research explores the influence of environmental factors such as access to green spaces, healthcare, and quality education, on the suicide risk among U.S. adolescents and young adults, with a specific focus on Black and Asian youth. Leveraging innovative statistical techniques and nationwide longitudinal data, the study aims to uncover why these social and structural determinants may disproportionately increase suicide risk. The findings will guide more targeted suicide prevention strategies, aiding in building healthier, more equitable communities. 

Full scientific abstract

Suicide is the second leading cause of death among U.S. adolescents and young adults aged 10 to 34. Racial/ethnic disparities in suicidal behaviors among youth and young adults in the US have emerged in recent years. Structural social determinants of health (SSDoH) are critical to understanding the impact of structural racism on suicide risks as they reflect systematic stressors that burden minorities. Yet, the longitudinal effects (and mechanisms) of the multidimensional structural social determinants on the disparities in suicidal trajectories (i.e., changes in suicidal ideation/attempts over the life course) are less clear. Few studies have examined disparity-related mediation pathways through stress (e.g., depression) and networks (e.g., parental closeness) to suicidal trajectories by race/ethnicity.  

We propose to leverage a cohort study of a nationally representative sample of 9421 respondents from Waves I-V National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (1994-2018), with substantial diversity in race, and neighborhood and socioeconomic status, recruited in 7-12th grade across the U.S. and followed up five times through young adulthood (ages ~42) with over 80% response rates per wave, to innovatively study where, why, and to whom intra-neighborhood differences in SSDoH influence the incidence and persistence of suicidal ideation and suicide attempts. We will link SSDoH data of neighborhood physical, healthcare, social, education, and economic contexts to each participant's residential and school neighborhoods. We will also innovatively assess confounding via individual-level factors known or hypothesized to influence suicidal behaviors, including social networks, mental illness, and access/quality of healthcare, and then construct SSDoH typologies that will directly inform policy. Our central hypothesis is that living in high-risk SSDoH increases suicidal behaviors concurrently and longitudinally, particularly in racial/ethnic minorities. We will produce findings of direct relevance to public health, city planning, and design decisions around temperature-reducing, healthcare-producing, and social cohesion-promoting interventions, greening, tree planting, and building construction. Our aims are:

 Aim 1: Intensively characterize SSDoH and their associations with suicidal trajectories of >9,000 longitudinally followed adolescents till their young adulthood.

Aim 2: Apply novel latent variable techniques to physical and social environment data to identify SSDoH typologies related to suicidal trajectories that are relevant to city planners.

Aim 3: Identify mediators (e.g., social networks, depressive symptoms) and moderators (e.g., health care access) of the impact of SSDoH and suicidal trajectories to advance future research and inform policies.

The emerging concerns on social risks underscores that investment in research on the multidimensional SSDoH on suicide risks is critical, timely, and can produce real-world changes with population-level benefits. We will produce innovative findings with direct health policy implications and clear and downstream interventions that improve health. We have previously conducted large-scale longitudinal studies and have collaborated with policymakers to leverage our science in improving health for local communities, making us well-situated to complete the proposed project.

Findings of our study will support an NIMH R01 application to further identify place-based suicide prevention. Focusing on SSDoH over the life course provides a unique and timely opportunity to unravel the impact of structural racism that systematically burdens racial/ethnic minorities.

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