Research finding · March 2026
Extreme Risk Protection Order laws impacted firearm suicide rates in four U.S. states
More than half of all suicide deaths in the United States involve a firearm. Because firearms are highly lethal and often used in moments of crisis, policies that temporarily reduce firearm access during periods of heightened risk have become a central strategy in suicide prevention. Extreme Risk Protection Orders, sometimes called red flag laws, allow courts to temporarily remove firearms from individuals judged to be at serious risk of harming themselves or others. Supporters view these laws as a way to create time and distance during moments of acute distress. At the same time, an important question remains in the field: do these laws reduce overall suicide deaths, or do individuals simply turn to other methods? Understanding this distinction is essential to evaluating how lethal means safety works in real-world settings.
In this large, county-level study spanning from 2012 to 2022, Dr. Yunyu Xiao looked at suicide trends in four states (Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Rhode Island) that enacted ERPO laws without passing other firearm legislation at the same time, and then compared them to trends in eight states that did not enact ERPO laws during the study period. After accounting for local economic conditions, mental health resources, and other factors that can influence suicide rates, Dr. Xiao found that firearm suicides declined in the year following ERPO implementation. This reduction translated to an estimated 675 fewer firearm suicide deaths across the treatment states. Importantly, there was no measurable increase in suicides by other methods during the same period. Taken together, the findings suggest that ERPO laws may reduce firearm suicides, offering support for policies that temporarily limit access to highly lethal means during times of crisis.
Citation: Brown, T. T., Kaplan, M. S., Yan, Z., & Xiao, Y. (2026). Extreme Risk Protection Orders and Firearm and Nonfirearm Suicides in the US. JAMA health forum, 7(1), e256442. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamahealthforum.2025.6442
This finding comes from an AFSP-funded study — see the grant below ↓